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The Course is set for 2010
The economic waters determine the pace of market recovery
“Mare Siculum” (ex “Mumbai Express”)
Initial hopeful signs of market recovery are currently emerging. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for world economic growth in January this year. For 2010 the organisation expects an increase of 3.9 per cent compared to its previous assumption of 3.1 per cent. World trade has bounced back thanks to low interest rates and government economic stimulus programmes and is forecast to grow at a positive rate of +5.8 per cent after a decline of -12.3 per cent in 2009. The impetus for the recovery is generated, as expected, by the dynamics in China, which wrested the unofficial title of “Export Champion” from Germany in 2009.
The current outlook shows initial signs of a recovery. The extent to which the economic waters favour the course of shipping depends on the further development of growth drivers USA, China, India and Russia as well as on the possible tendencies towards protectionism, the follow-up effects of global economic stimulus programmes, the monetary policy approach, price development on the commodities markets, the impacts of regulation on the financial markets and the stability of the labour markets.
Gaining momentum with Slow Steaming
In the meantime the shipping market profits from the measures initiated by scheduled carriers, such as so-called Slow Steaming, which significantly reduces fuel consumption and thus costs. A reduction in speed from 22 knots to 14 knots, for example, creates additional needs for cargo space of 22 per cent on the Asia-Europe route if the annual transport capacity remains constant. It is more economical for shipping companies to sail at a slower speed with more vessels than faster with fewer ships. Furthermore, by virtue of the combination of Slow Steaming and the inexpensive charter rates at present, new or also extended scheduled services can be offered on the market. Up to February 2010 the increased demand for tonnage led to a decline in mothballed transport capacity of approximately 12.5 per cent.
Realignment of shipyards
Due to postponed deliveries of new vessels, modifications or cancellations of orders, fewer ships will be delivered in 2010 than originally planned, resulting in less burden on the charter market. It remains to be seen whether and to what extent still existing overcapacity can be absorbed in future by virtue of scrapping and increasing cargo volumes. Shipyards are realigning because of the shortage of orders for new vessels. There is now greater interest in ship recycling, for example, in the range of services. China in particular stands out on the basis of its expansion of green recycling, meaning that vessels are dismantled in floating docks or at the pier. There is greater focus on repairing, rebuilding and retrofitting ships. In addition, shipyards attach increasing importance to special shipbuilding, but at the same time diversify their product range beyond shipbuilding by getting involved in wind energy generation facilities and offshore technology, which is gaining greater significance – as well as maritime environmental protection.
Moving ahead with climate protection
Climate protection will become a dominant issue for the maritime shipping sector in the coming years although merchant shipping has by far the best climate balance of all means of transportation. The IMO (International Maritime Organization) is working intensively on reducing the output of emissions by ship engines via technical improvements on both the vessel and the engine. Maintaining the commensurability of environmental protection and optimal economic efficiency are imperative here. Realistic solutions that do not impair world trade and avoid a shift to less environmentally friendly means of transportation have to be developed. The signs of a recovery in the world economy are increasing. For the shipping sector it will be important that world trade in 2010 recovers and the demand for maritime transport services substantially rises again. For the time being we are at the beginning of a gradual upswing.
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